The timeline for full 5G implementation is still a few years away. According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group, RAN revenues will be at their weakest between 2017 and 2021. Initial 5G RANs will be deployed as macro base stations, to be followed by 5G small cells for urban settings. Millimeter-wave services will initially account for less than 5% of carrier spending on the 5G market by 2021.
Disruptive and Enabling 5G
What will be the key disruptive technology trends enabling 5G? It depends upon who you ask. At the recent IEEE IMS 2017 event, a Keysight presentation listed the following as key enabling technologies:
--New Radio (NR) Standard for 5G – separate from LTE. This is the 3GPP standard.
--Spectrum - Other 5G or “pre-5G” air interface specifications including:
- Verizon Pre-5G spec (fixed wireless mm-wave)
- AT&T Pre-5G Trial (fixed wireless mm-wave)
- KT Spec (mobile wireless mm-wave)
--mm-wave and phase array antenna – Complexities will require 20 dB of base-line additional link-budget (or a factor of 100× more power)
--Multiple-Input/Multiple-Output (MIMO) – Will offers significant gains in wireless data rates and link reliability.
--Radio Access Network (RAN) and Core Network – How will legacy and new 5G network architectures interact?
This list tracks closely with the 5G disruptive technologies presented by Qorvo’s Riley:
- Mm-wave spectrum
- Massive MIMO
- Advanced coding and modulation schemes (part of the 5G NR standard)
- Integrated backhaul and cloud-based RAN
From a technology standpoint, Riley pointed out that this will mean higher frequency, wider bandwidth, and higher efficiency power amplifiers (PAs). Other needed components will include low noise floor LNAs, quantized phase shifters and ultra-low jitter clocks. Low-cost mm-wave packaging must also be available, as will ultra-high speed and low power A dc/D ac, high-gain directional antennas and beamforming and very high data rate serial links—like SerDes, TIA, and optical drivers.
The importance of these components was confirmed by Troadec from Yole. The RF component market’s growth will be led by filters and duplexers, representing 72% of the total market in 2020 (see Fig. 4).